Nifty Future -- 29-oct-10 -- EOD.

Today after opening, when nifty future came down below Hourly 200 EMA( That time it was at 6031), from that time it was trying hard to go across hourly 200 EMA, when it could not, fall started from there.
Weekly 7 EMA was at 5991 at opening hour after yesterdays close. But during trading hour today, it came up at 6004.
Nifty future weekly close done above this level. Suppose, if fail to do so, then it could correct for several weeks. That means, if any correction left ahead next week, will definitely cover up within next week.
Now, today after fall it covered up and got resisted at 20 D-EMA and fall back.

After closing--
20-D-EMA --6059
7-D-EMA -- 6052
10-W-EMA -- 5930
55-D-EMA -- 5885
3-M-EMA -- 5874

From first hour to around 1.00pm, open interest was showing 50-50 possibilities but slightly down side biased. But during fall it was supporting down side.
And after 3.15pm today, i noticed that open interest was highly supporting down fall, huge call writing was visible that time.
So on Monday, if written call's are not covered, then fall will start.
And if 10 Week EMA (5930) is break, then Nifty Future will test 55-D-EMA (5885)and break of this, can test 3-M-EMA (5874).

Nifty Future -- 29-oct-10 -- Updated 11.43 AM.

Its a 4 hour chart.

A First Rise setup can form, and Inverted HNS can form, if nifty future can rise from here 3 hour more, or if close above 6031 today.

Nifty Future -- 29-oct-10 -- Updated at 10.53 AM.

Nifty future facing resistance at 200 EMA -- 6031.
And above this more three resistances are mentioned in the chart.

Nifty Future -- 29-oct-10 -- Before opening.

Oct'10 series closed at 5987, and nov'10 series nfity future is at 6064.
77 points premium.
So cannot post chart, after opening i will post chart.

Main points are--
1. Nifty future breached 7 week EMA yesterday in oct'10 series , which was at 5991, but in nov'10 series it is safe.
In any case, Nifty future should not break and close below 7 week EMA today, as because today is also weekly closing.
If it close below 7 week EMA today, then can expect a deep correction farther ahead.

Upside, strong resistance zone is at 6081 and 6097.
And if nifty future can cross 6109 and stay for one hour, then can expect more upside as of now.

And downside support zone's starts from 6040 - 6019, any break of this zone can test down side support zone which was at and still also at 5987 - 5970.

Weekly 10 EMA is at 5920. This can also give support and can bounce back from here( if any fall up to here ).

So keep close watch at the level 7 week EMA- 5991, should not close below this today.

Many more after opening.

Regards
Siddharth.

Nifty Future-- 28-OCT-10--At opening Hour.

Down side supports area are 5995-5987, and 5962-5946 ( All Red Lines ).

Watch up side levels are 6032-6068-6089-6107-6133 ( All Blue Lines).

I will be not available today during Trading hour.

Nifty Future ---MMA System -- 27-OCT-10 -- EOD.

A new system called MMA(Multiple Moving average), Based on Guppy MMA, Inventor Daryll Guppy in 1997( check his website "www.guppytraders.com).

Through this system, we can identify trend or buy sell signal.
I was watching this system from last few days, and find out its working well. Last signal it was a sell signal. I will let you know or post this chart again when it will give any buy signal .

Now at down side, i found a support area at 5995-5987 as per EOD data.
Below this, another support area is at 5962-5945.
My another system signaling that we are very near to bottom or it made already.
Any way MMA system will give signal for buy if bottom already made, as of now not giving any buy signal.

Nifty future-- 27-oct-10 update

Nifty future will confuse in this 6102-6220 zone. Any break of 6056 with strong volume and stay for a hour can give strength for down side momentum.
Up side targets are 6187-6194-6220-6235-6247.
Any Strong break of 6247 with volume and momentum can set up side target of 6363.
And open interest should also support this kind of up side movements, other wise we can stay in confusing zone.

Few words at 11.43 AM - 26-oct-10.

Open Interest showing mix result ( nifty spot ).
Below 6100 level nifty spot is weak and above 6100 nifty spot can gather strength.

As of now at 11.43 AM, open interest for nifty spot only showing this and nifty future will act based on nifty spot open interest.


Regards
Siddharth.

Nifty Future--25-oct-10 EOD and for 26-oct-10

It is not looks like any fresh 1 to 5 wave's. Movement was not sharp up side, rather movement was mixed with up and down side.
This can be simple zig-zag corrective "B" wave or irregular "B" wave.

1. Can take "B" complete today and starts "C" unfolding down side. I think if nifty future fall below 6080 and stay there for 45 minutes, then It can go down side towards 6002-5980-5945.

2. For zig-zag "B", first it can come down to 6102 level and then go up side towards 6187-6192-6222.

3. For irregular "B" , it can also come down to 6102 level and then go up side for new high.


As of now these possibilities are playing in my mind.

Updated at 2.52 PM-- 21-oct-10.

The open interest was showing huge strength.
But as of now, strength is reducing.
Be careful about it, because, I think distribution is going on from big hand to others at the high level.
It seems, it is not a fresh 1 to 5 wave's. Rather it is any sub wave of "B" i think.


Regards
Siddharth.

Update at 10.29.AM, 25-oct-10.

Nifty future crossed the 6150 barrier..

A good news is that -- Open interest showing huge huge strength, as of now at 10.29 AM.

Lets see.. Hope for best..

Nifty Future for 25-oct-10.

Find out three probabilities only.
The Labellings are not made by Exact calculated figure.
Through this, I am trying to find out the next swing of the trend and the approximate targets.

1. In this scenario, We can say "A"-"B"-"C" complete and moving with fresh 1 to 5 waves for new up side target.
But for this scenario, so many things have to be clear first.

===================================================
2. In this scenario, "A" complete and "B" also complete and "C" is unfolding and can go down to 6002-6010, or 5980, or 5945.











====================================================
3. In this scenario,

(i) Main "A"complete.
"B" also Complete and now "C" unfolding with 5 waves. With this analysis it is visible that, this "C" can correct more deep, any thing below 5900.

(ii) Main "A" complete..
"B" is unfolding and can go up side up to 6170- 6187, or up to 6222-6235.
And from there "C" will start unfolding with 5 waves, and can go down up to 6010-5980-5945.

And then after fresh 1 to 5 wave will start.

Nifty Future -- After 22nd-oct-10.

Nifty Future could not cross above upper Red Chanel, and breached side support Chanel.
Now the question is what will be the next. So many probabilities gathering here.

Bulls Eye ----->

1. Yesterday(22-10-10), short term indicators was at OB zone. Nifty future could go down below 6000 easily, but it did not.

2. This Weekly closing is above all EMA ( 3,5,7,10) and upper envelope also, And This week bounced back from weekly 7 EMA.

3. FII Net bought Equity(Rs. crore) ============================ Debt (Rs. crore)


From 2009 oct -- 2010-sep --- 113,514.20 ====================== 56,206.20

From 1st-oct-10 -- 21-oct-10 --- 21,051.20 ( 18.55% of last 12 month's) === 158.00

In September 2010 ------------- 29,195.80 ======================= 7,625.30

In August 2010 ------------------ 11,185.30 ====================== 1,988.40

As of now FII Invested Good amount in cash market.



Bear's Jump ---->

1. Closed Just at Day 7 EMA(micro down).

2. 35-D, or , Hourly Stochastic was at OB and turned down.

3. Could not cross above 6150, just tested and fall.

4. Closed below Daily 10/13/20 SMA.

5. Hourly Chart Showing weakness.


And many more....


So Have to find out Probabilities..

I am finding out 3 - 4 Probabilities,, and will post Tomorrow..

Nifty Future -- 22-oct-10 -- Before opening.

Few Points ( The two Red Chanel) need to be watch carefully today from the opening.
The upside Red Chanel will act as a resistance and break of this will be heading towards the upper target.
The side Chanel will act as a support and break of this will be heading towards down side vital support zone.
Always be alert.....

Nifty Future - 21-oct-10 -- EOD.

Today from morning nifty future was showing strength, and yesterday night at 10.37 pm posted a comment here, that EuroUSD showing strength.
And Nifty Future was getting Resistance at 6045-6058, and 6082-6097, and these level i mentioned at 9.46 am.
Due to Power problem and Net problem, I could not continue posting during Trading hour from last 4 day's, Hope from tomorrow it will be O.K ..

Now, Tomorrow, Nifty Future should not break the two lines, 6074-6082 ( Two Red Lines), It is a vital support zone, any break out will start another round of fall again, but not expecting as of now..

Up side, Two target i am looking for--
1. 6187 (Green Line).
2. 6235 (Blue Line).

I strongly believe that nifty future will touch the upper blue line at 6235.

Analysis based on Data available as of now.

Nifty Future-- 21-oct-10, 9.46AM

Hope nifty future is bouncing back. Main hurdles is between 6045- 6058.
NF should cross this first hurdles. Then second one is between 6082-6097.
NF should close above 2nd Resistance zone. Then only clear up move starts.

And main good news is that, After so many day's Open Interest starts supporting up side journey as of now..

Will Post more ..


Regards
Siddharth.

Nifty Future-For 21-0ct-10

On Thursday (21-oct-10) Expecting down side more up to 5955-5939.
These two lines are strong support area.
Before also these two lines were support area.
And now, daily 34 EMA-34SMA both are here, and weekly 7- EMA also here.
Its a strong support area.
And after testing these lines , I believe that nifty future will start up side journey for new high, in this month.
Open interest should also support this.
Lets see..

Nifty Future Only--20-oct-10--Before opening.

As expected Nifty future will open gap down, expecting 5990-6010.
NF will try to cover up and expecting any range up to these black lines--
6120
6128
6132
6155
6193
I am expecting up side will be a trap for long.
Any body having long position, should come out at any up side level. You can go long when the market will strong again. Now weakness is reflecting.
After up side relief rally, i will post down side target today any time..

Again i said be cautious about longs.

This analysis is made for current situation..

19-oct-10--EOD Chart.

To day, I was expecting at least nifty future can go up to 6194 and then fall.
But it resisted at Chanel .From last two days open interest not at all supporting up side journey, some times it was showing side ways and some times down side.
Any way, Tomorrow nifty future again will go up side, but that will be a Trap.
Tomorrow morning, I will post another analysis- before market opening.

19-oct-10--Before opening.

Watch 6069 level very carefully, break below this level and stay for 10-15 minutes then another round of selling will start.
Now for up side there is two heavy resistance point i found (Blake lines) --6194 and 6240, and this is also HNS zone.
Any body long should strict trailing stop-loss, as of now trailing stop-loss is at 6069.
HNS zone will clear above 6275.
Up side first target is at 6338-6348 (Green lines).

ALL Levels are always for nifty future.

18-oct-10--EOD.

Nifty future, turned back from near 6000 level and again above 6042.
It was showing strength from 6036 level. Now hourly chart is also in strength. Because of , hourly intra-day over bought, nifty future can go down few points tomorrow after opening.
1> Any one can go long above 6145-6150 level.
2> Always have to be alert about HNS (bearish in nature). So a trailing stop loss will require.

When it will reach in safe zone from HNS zone,, after that my upside target will be intact.
Up side target's are--

1. Target 6338-6348.
2. Target 6386-6408.
3. Target 6455.
4. Target 6519.

Happy Vijaya Dashami To All.

I found the correction was due in a chart. Tomorrow nifty future maximum can go down side to 6042, if any down side at all there..
On last Friday after 6.00 pm settlement, nifty future closed at 6092 (which was my last 3rd target).
The entry point to go long for conservative is 6145 (orange line ) , and another point before this point is 6125 (orange line).
The up side probable target is--
1. Target 6338-6348
2. Target 6386-6408.
3. Target 6455.
4. Target 6519.

Will always be there at Just Nifty..

Happy Maha Navami,, Happy Durga Puja To All

As of now, I go through different probabilities. Calculate with different MA's with different angels, Calculate through FIBB's and Channel's with 20 different angels..
But not found any panic or weakness.
Lot more work to do, with more different angels.. I will Update and post fresh chart Tomorrow with probable up side Target.
I am in long and made it before closing yesterday.. Lets see..


Regards
Siddharth.

Happy Durga Puja to all,, Today Is Maha Ashtami.

Posting only few words..
HNS pattern can form,, we have to be very careful about it..
In monthly chart all volume and the position made before in this month, all are vanished,,
We are standing on a edge, just edge.
Any negative closing on Monday can trigger a long down side..
Though i am not expecting that as of now.
I initiated long position today, just few minutes before closing..
Why i told "powertrader" not to take any stop lose , because stop lose cannot give money, but stop and revers can give..
It is oversold in intraday, expecting bounce back from Monday..
Not pointing out any up side target at once. Just posting few words only and will post Tomorrow or day after..
We can gather tomorrow morning after 9.00 AM at " Just Nifty" for more conversation.
We will not trade with any biased focus, we will trade for business..
Lot more thing have to analyze first , then only we can come to a conclusion,, because its a typical situation formed. Its a challenging scenario, but have to win any way..

Jai MA DURGA..

Happy Maha Saptami--Happy Durga PujaTo all

If you have missed this huge up-side rally--no problem..
If you have missed this corrective down side rally( going on)--no problem..
But don't miss out next rally upside..
Tomorrow after opening, if nifty future starts going up, then it can maximum retrace up side up to 6227( black line )..
If nifty future can stay above 6230 for 1 hour after opening tomorrow, then only it can only start next up side rally..
But i think nifty future can only retrace up side, if any retrace at all there, to 6227 max and fall from there.. Down side target i am looking for up to 6132-6116-6092( light pink colored lines-down side).. I feel at this moment nifty future will not break 6100 level.. From down side we can go for long. I will post my comments at just nifty when nifty future will reach the bottom tomorrow-as per my view.. I an in short position and i will book profit at down side or i will revers my position if nifty future stay above 6230 for 1 hour after opening tomorrow..


Now about my OPTION strategy, which i discussed few days back ,,, if you can take some risk then you can go for it,, it will be low risk- high reward ratio.
If any one interested,can take the following contracts..

1. Buy any one of 6600-6700-6800 CE ( call- November Series ),, but it should be below 20 and which ever is higher price in between 6600 to 6800.
2. Buy any one of 5500-5600 PE ( put- November Series ),, but it should be below 20 and which ever is higher price in between 5500 and 5600..

Disclaimer-- I will buy this ,, but for others- it is of their own risk( in stock market any can happen any time and you can lose your all money ),, or can try in pen and paper only.

A triangle formed.. Expecting up side break out..
From today's morning also open interest was showing strength and still showing strength..

13-oct-10--EOD..

What is the difference between 1st and 3rd wave-- these are the same type of wave's,, only major difference is the length.
what are the difference between 2nd and 4th wave.... looks like same,, but the major difference is that 4th is always a time and price correction, where 2nd is price correction..
3rd and 4th wave can continuously appear as a sub-wave..In bigger format it can be seen as 1st and 2nd..
Any way..
There was always a anti action against any action,, and still also and will be also..
Now i fell nifty future will not enter 6000 level any more for few months..
Tomorrow we can get a short term Top,, and can short initiated from there..
I will update time to time..
Today i failed to alert you guys ,, after opening,, but i was always there at just nifty and posted my view's..
Tomorrow i will post more after opening..

Every alone person needs some blessings from GURU'S and expecting always..

Happy DURGA PUJA -- Today is Maha Sasthi.

Nifty future can retrace up side up to two black lines.

Some down side targets are labeled with Green lines.

To simplify your trade,, i am working on it,, that time you can take decision more prominently..

Any suggestion,, please leave message .

12-oct-10--update at 11.30 AM

As i said yesterday's post, that if nifty future break below "6145" for 1 houre and 30 minutes, it will not be able to come up again and for this scenario,, "B" unfolding was over.. And "C" starts unfolding..

Some down side target's are leveled with green lines..

11-oct-EOD and some analysis for tomorrow.

The journey of 6300 seems to be very much resistive.
Today Open interest was also not supportive to go up side. From any angle Nifty future was not reflecting any bullishness.
I feel that some down side is left for unfold. So there should be some shape in EW for this down trend from 6248.
A bigger "A" is complete. Now bigger"B" is unfolding in which, sub-wave "a" done,, sub-wave "b" also done,, and last sub-wave "c" is unfolding and i think max to max it can go up to 6174 - 6210, and through this bigger "B" will complete. Now, if tomorrow nifty future starts trading below 6145 and trade below this level for 1 hour and 30 minutes from opening, then NF will not be able to come up to complete bigger "B", and in that scenario, we have to think that bigger "B" completes and bigger "C" is unfolding..

11-oct-10,,Morning update.

Some Resistance point for 6300 Journey.
1>6152.
2>6173
3>6186
4>6210
5>6248

Up side target intact,, upper two green lines.

Nifty future should not break 6120.

Any one made long position, should take a stop loss at 6120..
My Trailing stop loss for long-- i will post every time at "Just Nifty " blog..

08-oct-10--EOD..

Nifty future touched two pink line, 6110 and 6103, and from below pink line it bounce back--- I was posted it today morning at 9.10 am, that i can happen.. Its done..

Nifty future closed above 6125,no problem at all now..

On Monday, if nifty future can manage to stay above 6120 level and not break it,, then it will run up side..
My up side first target is-- 6306, and second target is 6339..

Two black lines up side--
1-- 6306
2-- 6339

Only NF Weekly chart is disturbing( not posted )..

08-oct-10, update at 9.03 AM

As of now nifty future can go up to 6166( black line ) level..
Then after it can go down up to 6110( pink line ) to 6103( pink line ) level..

And i feel nifty future will bounce back from lower pink line..

07-oct-EOD Report,And some position for Tomorrow.

I had to go out during trading hour,but its good to see the 6138 line was touched by nifty future, which i was given before.

But till now there is no panic at all..
Though expecting nifty future can touch 6106( Pink Line ) level tomorrow, and a sharp bounce back expecting from there.

Nifty future should close above 6125( Green Line, just above pink line ) level tomorrow also
for further up move..
Failing to do so, then panic will start.
As i said in earlier post also, nifty future should close above last high ( 6248 ) in this week closing, so that this current up move can continue through next week also.
Failing to do so, nifty future can go for deep correction up to Approx 5910 level, rather it is to early to say this level..

I have to go for more deep study to work out others nearest possibilities.

Will try to post more possibilities before market hour tomorrow..

PINK LINE--6106
GREEN LINE --6125

Update at 11.08Am,07-10-10

A triangle formed. Which side it will break, have to see..
Down side the Green Chanel,previously it was the upper Channel which was breached few days ago .

I am not posting any chart for today as of now..
Let me observe the market first, then i will update.


Regards.
Siddharth Dhar.

06-10-10,update 11.06am

Just see, when ever NF breaks the 3-day EMA(black line) then got support at 7-day EMA(green line).

Now 3-day EMA is at 6182.
and 7-fay EMA is approx at 6130.

Today expecting NF will touch at least 3-day EMA..then the figure will be also in a shape, "a-b-c-d-e" in hourly and 15-minutes chart.

For 06-oct-10 and This Week

Nifty future making double head pattern in weekly Chart(2nd chart), to dissolve this pattern, Nifty future has to move up beyond last high(approx-6248) in this week before week closing..

I think nifty future can go down(if breaks 6168) up to 6138-6131-6129-6119..
Three Red lines are my down side target..
After bottoming up, up to these red lines, nifty future can run up side again..
After bottoming out, upside target can fix out..
Will update more in trading hours....

05-10-10, update 12.53 pm

Up side retrace complete within upto two black line given at 10.39 am today..
Now down side target two red lines-- 6138-6131..

After this down turn,, Nifty future will go for new up side.probable target upside,, i will post,, let first complete this down side journey..

05-10-2010,update-10.39 AM

Nifty Future can retrace up side up to these two black lines..

For 05th OCT-2010

Up side target was achieved during intraday today..

My down side target is 6138 and 6104..
Nifty future will bounce back from 6138 or from between 6138 to 6104..
I will update more charts during trading hour tomorrow..

04-10-2010--10.55 am

Now My down side target 6136,, in between 6171 can act as a support..

For 4th oct'2010

After opening tomorrow if NF break down 6160,, then expecting downfall max up to 6097 or 6045..

If NF not breached 6160 after opening, then can go up side max up to 6225 to 6232 for this moment,, because market is at OB zone,, needs some or little bit cool off..

First break down point is 6160,, it is calculated upon EOD data,, and it changes in market running condition..
I will up date this break down point in running market at "JN" comments section..